Over the last couple of months, there have been a few occasions when the National Energy System Operator (NESO) has issued warnings or sought out additional power to prevent the risk of blackouts. But what is causing this to happen and why are they unable to manage the energy demand as effectively as previous years?
How is the UK energy market changing?
Over the past decade, we have seen an increase in renewable energy and a decline in fossil fuels in the production of electricity to support the reduction of carbon emissions. The last coal-powered power station went offline in September 2024 after forming the backbone of UK energy for many years.
In 2024 45% of the UK’s electricity was generated by renewables which include wind, solar and biomass. Nuclear energy increased this clean energy figure to 58% in total for 2024 making it the cleanest year for energy so far. The biggest source of electricity is gas-powered stations followed closely by wind power at 26%.
The impact weather has on production
Unlike any other form of energy production, renewable energy like wind and solar is not completely predictable, as it is dependent on the weather. Although weather forecasting can aid with predicting output it can not match the predictability of a power station or the capability of producing energy at the times when energy is most required. This unpredictability and the lack of energy storage means that the UK is vulnerable to potential energy shortages when there are peaks in demand like when adverse weather occurs to increase demand past the normal levels.
Weather can work negatively and positively on the energy grid. High winds have resulted in days where the grid has achieved fossil fuel-free days. But in very cold weather as we have just seen with no wind and snow covering solar panels, the renewable energy output is reduced.
Power stations can’t be easily switched on and off but they can be planned more effectively to meet demand, which is why the UK hasn’t had circumstances like this winter before where there has been potential for blackouts.
What is the National Grid and the Government doing?
National Grid has just announced £35 billion of investment as part of their RIIO-T3 business plan for Electricity Transmission which will be made between 2026 and 2031. The plan is focused on upgrading the electricity infrastructure to aid the UK in meeting its clean energy goals and expanding the grid’s capacity.
This aims to connect 35GW of new energy generation and storage facilities which will support further future connections of 26GW and enable large-scale demand projects to go ahead without impacting grid demand and capabilities. It aspires to double the amount of energy that can be transported around the country and support the electrification of industries.
The RIIO-T3 business plan should aid the National Grid in delivering a more flexible grid that is capable of managing the energy mix of the future whilst being able to handle energy demand effectively. But in the interim, the UK may be at risk of short periods where blackout warnings may be raised and energy may be purchased at higher rates to fill this gap from other countries or energy suppliers.
What can you do?
As individual households, there are a few things we can do to help support grid flexibility. The first thing is to move any energy demand possible out of the peak demand times which are between 4-8pm. The lowest demand times are between 10pm and 8am which is why some energy tariffs are lower at these times. So if you can run your washing machine and dishwasher etc at other times it can all help.
The other thing households can do is install residential solar panels, and combine them with battery storage so that they can utilise the energy generated during the day at peak times rather than draw their electricity from the grid. This will also save money on energy bills.
There is also a scheme with Octopus that is trialling households with solar PV and battery storage to utilise their battery storage to store electricity for the grid. They encourage you to fill your battery during the night when rates are low and release the electricity back to the grid when export rates are high, so you can make money out of your battery. There’s more about this in our Octopus Flux blog.
